diff --git a/.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/SKILL.md b/.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/SKILL.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b2d5b6f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/SKILL.md
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+---
+name: dependabot-merge
+description: Merge this repo's open Dependabot PRs deterministically — classify them, land non-lockfile PRs first, then lockfile PRs one at a time (rebase, fresh `web` pass on the new head, merge), then verify main with the local CI mirror. Use when asked to merge, land, process, or clear Dependabot PRs, dependency bumps, or dependency PRs.
+---
+
+# Dependabot merge
+
+`docs/dependabot.md` is the source of truth; read it if anything below is unclear. This skill drives the routine path with `dependabot-merge.sh` (next to this file) and leaves every judgment call to you and the user.
+
+## Rules
+
+- Run the script and every `gh` call **outside the sandbox** (authenticated `gh` doesn't work inside it).
+- Never `gh pr merge --admin` or otherwise bypass branch protection on a PR that touches `pnpm-lock.yaml`. Never force-push.
+- Never comment `@dependabot rebase` on a failure mode 1 (broken lockfile) or failure mode 3 (package.json without lockfile) PR. It comes back in the same shape.
+
+## Procedure
+
+1. **Status** (read-only): `.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/dependabot-merge.sh status`. Show the user the table. Classes:
+   - `NONLOCK`: no lockfile change (Actions/workflow bumps). These merge first.
+   - `LOCK`: touches `pnpm-lock.yaml`. These merge strictly one at a time.
+   - `FM3`: changes `package.json` but not the lockfile (a security PR scoped to `/apps/web`). The script skips it. Find the green grouped PR carrying the same version and merge that instead. Dependabot then closes the FM3 PR on its own.
+   - `RED`: the `web` check failed on the current head. The script skips it. Read the failing log and report. A major bump hitting a held-major reason (eslint 10, TypeScript 7, react-table 9) means the `ignore:` list needs a look, not a fix.
+   - `MAJOR=yes`: skipped unless `--include-majors`. Review the changelog with the user first.
+2. **Dry run**: `... merge --dry-run`. Confirm the order and skips with the user.
+3. **Merge**: `... merge` (add `--include-majors` only if the user approved specific majors). This polls for minutes per PR, so run it in the background and wait for it to exit. It stops non-zero on a red check, `UNSTABLE`, too many rebases, or a timeout. Report the stop reason; don't loop on it.
+   - A timeout with the head SHA unchanged usually means Dependabot refused to rebase. Check the PR's comments for a lockfile parse error, which is failure mode 1.
+4. **Verify**: `... verify` runs the local CI mirror on a temp worktree of `origin/main`. If it reports `ERR_PNPM_BROKEN_LOCKFILE`, follow failure mode 1 in the doc by hand (rebuild the lockfile on a fix branch, open a superseding PR, close the stuck ones).
+
+Tunables (env): `POLL_SECS` (30), `PR_TIMEOUT_SECS` (1200), `MAX_REBASES` (3), `REPO`.
diff --git a/.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/dependabot-merge.sh b/.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/dependabot-merge.sh
new file mode 100755
index 0000000..8f8bb85
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/dependabot-merge.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# Deterministic Dependabot merge loop for this repo. Encodes the routine path of
+# docs/dependabot.md; everything off that path stops and reports instead of guessing.
+#
+#   dependabot-merge.sh [status]                         read-only table of open Dependabot PRs
+#   dependabot-merge.sh merge [--dry-run] [--include-majors]
+#   dependabot-merge.sh verify                           local CI mirror on a temp worktree of origin/main
+#
+# Needs authenticated `gh` and `jq` — run outside the sandbox.
+set -euo pipefail
+
+REPO="${REPO:-alchemydc/launchcontrol}"
+POLL_SECS="${POLL_SECS:-30}"
+PR_TIMEOUT_SECS="${PR_TIMEOUT_SECS:-1200}"
+MAX_REBASES="${MAX_REBASES:-3}"
+
+log() { printf '%s %s\n' "$(date +%H:%M:%S)" "$*" >&2; }
+die() { log "STOP: $*"; exit 1; }
+
+# Open Dependabot PR numbers, ascending.
+list_prs() {
+  gh pr list --repo "$REPO" --state open --author app/dependabot --limit 100 \
+    --json number --jq '.[].number' | sort -n
+}
+
+pr_json() {
+  gh pr view "$1" --repo "$REPO" \
+    --json number,title,body,state,isDraft,headRefOid,mergeStateStatus,files
+}
+
+# "<status>/<conclusion>" of the `web` check run on a specific commit, or "none".
+web_check() {
+  local out
+  out=$(gh api "repos/$REPO/commits/$1/check-runs?check_name=web" \
+    --jq '.check_runs | sort_by(.started_at) | last | if . == null then "none" else "\(.status)/\(.conclusion // "-")" end')
+  echo "${out:-none}"
+}
+
+# yes if any "from A to B" in title/body crosses a leading version number.
+is_major() {
+  jq -r '[(.title + "\n" + (.body // "")) | scan("from v?([0-9]+)\\.[^ ]* to v?([0-9]+)\\.")
+          | select(.[0] != .[1])] | if length > 0 then "yes" else "no" end' <<<"$1"
+}
+
+# NONLOCK | LOCK | FM3 | RED
+classify() {
+  local json=$1 web=$2 lock pkg
+  lock=$(jq '[.files[].path] | index("pnpm-lock.yaml") != null' <<<"$json")
+  pkg=$(jq '[.files[].path] | any(endswith("package.json"))' <<<"$json")
+  # FM3 first: those PRs are always red, and the remedy differs from a real failure.
+  if [[ $pkg == true && $lock == false ]]; then
+    echo FM3
+  elif [[ $web == completed/* && $web != completed/success && $web != completed/skipped ]]; then
+    echo RED
+  elif [[ $lock == true ]]; then
+    echo LOCK
+  else
+    echo NONLOCK
+  fi
+}
+
+cmd_status() {
+  local n json sha web
+  printf '%-5s %-8s %-9s %-22s %-5s %s\n' PR CLASS STATE WEB MAJOR TITLE
+  for n in $(list_prs); do
+    json=$(pr_json "$n")
+    sha=$(jq -r .headRefOid <<<"$json")
+    web=$(web_check "$sha")
+    printf '%-5s %-8s %-9s %-22s %-5s %s\n' "$n" "$(classify "$json" "$web")" \
+      "$(jq -r .mergeStateStatus <<<"$json")" "$web" "$(is_major "$json")" "$(jq -r .title <<<"$json")"
+  done
+}
+
+# Rebase until current, wait for a fresh `web` pass on the new head, merge.
+merge_one() {
+  local n=$1 deadline rebases=0 requested_for="" json state mss sha web
+  deadline=$(( $(date +%s) + PR_TIMEOUT_SECS ))
+  log "#$n: start"
+  while :; do
+    (( $(date +%s) < deadline )) || die "#$n: timed out after ${PR_TIMEOUT_SECS}s (rebase refused? see docs/dependabot.md failure mode 1)"
+    json=$(pr_json "$n")
+    state=$(jq -r .state <<<"$json")
+    mss=$(jq -r .mergeStateStatus <<<"$json")
+    sha=$(jq -r .headRefOid <<<"$json")
+    case $state in
+      MERGED) log "#$n: merged"; return 0 ;;
+      CLOSED) log "#$n: closed by someone else, skipping"; return 0 ;;
+    esac
+    web=$(web_check "$sha")
+    case $web in
+      completed/success)
+        case $mss in
+          CLEAN)
+            log "#$n: CLEAN + web success on ${sha:0:7}, merging"
+            # A race (another PR landed) makes this fail; the next poll sees BEHIND.
+            gh pr merge "$n" --repo "$REPO" --merge || log "#$n: merge refused, re-polling" ;;
+          BEHIND|DIRTY)
+            if [[ $requested_for != "$sha" ]]; then
+              (( rebases < MAX_REBASES )) || die "#$n: still $mss after $MAX_REBASES rebases"
+              rebases=$((rebases + 1))
+              log "#$n: $mss, requesting rebase $rebases/$MAX_REBASES"
+              gh pr comment "$n" --repo "$REPO" --body "@dependabot rebase" >/dev/null
+              requested_for=$sha
+            fi ;;
+          UNSTABLE) die "#$n: web passed but another check failed (UNSTABLE)" ;;
+          *) log "#$n: $mss, waiting" ;;
+        esac ;;
+      completed/*) die "#$n: web check $web on ${sha:0:7} — fix or skip by hand" ;;
+      *)
+        # Pending or absent. A BEHIND PR with no run on its head still needs the rebase.
+        if [[ $mss == BEHIND || $mss == DIRTY ]] && [[ $web == none && $requested_for != "$sha" ]]; then
+          (( rebases < MAX_REBASES )) || die "#$n: still $mss after $MAX_REBASES rebases"
+          rebases=$((rebases + 1))
+          log "#$n: $mss with no web run, requesting rebase $rebases/$MAX_REBASES"
+          gh pr comment "$n" --repo "$REPO" --body "@dependabot rebase" >/dev/null
+          requested_for=$sha
+        else
+          log "#$n: $mss, web $web on ${sha:0:7}, waiting"
+        fi ;;
+    esac
+    sleep "$POLL_SECS"
+  done
+}
+
+cmd_merge() {
+  local dry=false majors=false n json web class major
+  local -a nonlock=() lock=()
+  for arg in "$@"; do
+    case $arg in
+      --dry-run) dry=true ;;
+      --include-majors) majors=true ;;
+      *) die "unknown merge flag: $arg" ;;
+    esac
+  done
+  for n in $(list_prs); do
+    json=$(pr_json "$n")
+    web=$(web_check "$(jq -r .headRefOid <<<"$json")")
+    class=$(classify "$json" "$web")
+    major=$(is_major "$json")
+    if [[ $(jq -r .isDraft <<<"$json") == true ]]; then log "#$n: skip (draft)"; continue; fi
+    case $class in
+      FM3) log "#$n: skip (FM3: package.json without lockfile — merge the grouped PR with the same version)"; continue ;;
+      RED) log "#$n: skip (RED: web $web — needs a human)"; continue ;;
+    esac
+    if [[ $major == yes && $majors == false ]]; then log "#$n: skip (major bump — review, then rerun with --include-majors)"; continue; fi
+    if [[ $class == NONLOCK ]]; then nonlock+=("$n"); else lock+=("$n"); fi
+  done
+  log "order: NONLOCK [${nonlock[*]:-}] then LOCK [${lock[*]:-}]"
+  $dry && { log "dry run, nothing changed"; return 0; }
+  for n in "${nonlock[@]}" "${lock[@]}"; do
+    merge_one "$n"
+  done
+  log "done; run '$0 verify' to check main"
+}
+
+cmd_verify() {
+  local root wt logf rc=0
+  root=$(git rev-parse --show-toplevel)
+  wt=$(mktemp -d "${TMPDIR:-/tmp}/dependabot-verify.XXXXXX")
+  logf="$wt.log"
+  # shellcheck disable=SC2064
+  trap "git -C '$root' worktree remove --force '$wt' >/dev/null 2>&1 || true" EXIT
+  git -C "$root" fetch origin main
+  git -C "$root" worktree add --detach "$wt" origin/main >/dev/null
+  log "verifying origin/main @ $(git -C "$wt" rev-parse --short HEAD) in $wt (log: $logf)"
+  (
+    cd "$wt"
+    set -x
+    pnpm install --frozen-lockfile
+    pnpm --filter web exec prisma generate
+    pnpm --filter web lint
+    pnpm --filter web typecheck
+    pnpm --filter web test
+    pnpm --filter web build
+  ) 2>&1 | tee "$logf" || rc=$?
+  if grep -q ERR_PNPM_BROKEN_LOCKFILE "$logf"; then
+    die "broken lockfile on main — follow docs/dependabot.md failure mode 1 (do not @dependabot rebase)"
+  fi
+  (( rc == 0 )) || die "local CI mirror failed (exit $rc), see $logf"
+  log "main is healthy"
+}
+
+case "${1:-status}" in
+  status) cmd_status ;;
+  merge) shift; cmd_merge "$@" ;;
+  verify) cmd_verify ;;
+  *) die "usage: $0 [status | merge [--dry-run] [--include-majors] | verify]" ;;
+esac
diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
index f59dd57..d7f1b9f 100644
--- a/.gitignore
+++ b/.gitignore
@@ -8,7 +8,8 @@
 real_season_data/
 
 # claude config / scratch
-.claude/
+.claude/*
+!.claude/skills/
 
 # deps & build output (workspace-wide)
 node_modules/
diff --git a/docs/dependabot.md b/docs/dependabot.md
index 594b9a0..daa828b 100644
--- a/docs/dependabot.md
+++ b/docs/dependabot.md
@@ -160,6 +160,9 @@ time — wait for each to fully merge before rebasing the next. When polling, ga
 actually being current, not just green: require both `mergeStateStatus == CLEAN` **and** a
 fresh `web` pass on the *new* head SHA (a stale pre-rebase run still shows `pass`).
 
+`.claude/skills/dependabot-merge/dependabot-merge.sh` automates this whole section
+(`status`, `merge [--dry-run]`, `verify`). Agents pick it up as the `dependabot-merge` skill.
+
 After the batch, run the [local CI mirror](#local-ci-mirror-verification) against `main` to
 confirm the lockfile is healthy.