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Superseded by #3 - #2

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wbnns wants to merge 7 commits into
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credibility-pass
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wbnns wants to merge 7 commits into
mainfrom
credibility-pass

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@wbnns wbnns commented Oct 11, 2026 •

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Superseded by #3.

wbnns added 7 commits October 11, 2026 12:52
Add TMR + unchecked simplex (isolates the value of self-check) and cold
standby (one powered string, the rest unpowered, switched on in index
order). A cold spare ages at --cold-aging of the powered rate, read from
each unit's own Weibull draw, which History now keeps as wear. The
correlation step also records each victim's killer. Neither adds a random
draw, so every existing number is unchanged.

Risk is the share of missions with at least one wrong result, with a
bootstrap interval. The report shows cold standby at aging 0.1 and 1.0
rather than one guessed value, and the sweep adds a table by aging rate.
The bench check skips any policy other than tmr and shrink with a note.
Doc comments on Outcome give the exact definitions.
check-readme.sh fails if the README misses any string in data.json's
display object or the page's static text drifts from it. With --run it
reruns dusk and diffs the README output blocks. CI runs fmt, clippy, the
tests and check-readme --run.
README output blocks are verbatim runs. Every 1.34x now says it assumes
no ground support after launch. Never less on any single mission is
stated as true by construction and tested over 200 seeds. Adds exact
definitions, a section on the two baselines with the cold aging table and
the two-string case, and the new limits. The page gains a risk tile, the
cold standby chart, the new table rows and straight apostrophes.
With two binaries, cargo run could not pick one, so the README's
cargo run --release commands failed.
Adds the cold standby chart, the two new lines in the timeline, risk,
the cold aging curve, and the generated and display blocks. Generated
from a clean tree at 6936feb. Every field data.json had before is
unchanged.
@wbnns wbnns closed this Oct 11, 2026
@wbnns
wbnns deleted the credibility-pass branch October 11, 2026 14:08
@wbnns wbnns changed the title Two more baselines, a per-mission risk metric, exact definitions, CI Superseded by #3 Oct 11, 2026
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