systematic-research

Systematic AI evaluation framework that transforms subjective assessment into objective measurement. Reduce research time by 85% while maintaining 95%+ accuracy through multi-LLM validation.

Brown camp-rotation sleeve (brown/blue pair). [Validation]

The AI complex as one crowded factor — a risk diagnostic. [Null]

Exchange (swap) funds, examined — all Reg D private, now democratized to accredited/$100k via Cache. No alpha (index minus fee); the product is the capital-gains deferral (maximized by the step-up at death); diversification is free to anyone who sells. A tax/estate vehicle, not a strategy. [Research]

BLAQUE BAUX organization profile and community health files.

Near-expiry far-OTM options — the short-vol premium is a trap; naked short-vol rejected. [Null]

Cross-section reversal-to-momentum sleeve. [Validation]

Bridgewater's All-Weather (replicable) & Pure Alpha (a data gap). All-Weather = a low-vol risk-parity compounder the family spine already beats (corr 0.96). Governed live driver: the static All-Seasons book — but its bonds_regime overlay (right signal for its 2022 weakness) fails the bar since the book self-diversifies → OFF. [Live driver]

The faith benchmark capstone: buy-and-hold the keepers, never rebalance. Earns +0.92 Sharpe but drifts into growth/PE concentration (-25% DD); disciplined risk parity beats it (+1.15, -17%). Rebalancing earns its keep -- discipline holds the line where faith drifts. [Research]

The value factor & margin of safety — still crucial? Value LAGGED growth risk-adjusted (a different beta, not alpha), crashed HARDER (pure value -51% vs -37% — the safety folklore inverted), and is really a rate bet: value beats growth +12%/yr when rates rise, -12%/yr when they fall, but too coarse to beat the index net of cost. [Research]

America's new SOEs — when Washington takes an equity stake (Intel, CHIPS, bailouts), does government backing prop up the stock or drag it like a China SOE? Two opposed hypotheses; the tell is the tail. Fat-tail toolkit: Jarque-Bera + Jensen's alpha + M-squared. [Concept]

Distressed assets that survive to pay out — fallen angels (ANGL), high-yield, the MF Global playbook (right thesis, killed by leverage). A conditional-keeper case; the fat left tail is the true cost. Verdicts lean on Jarque-Bera + max-drawdown + Jensen's alpha + M-squared. [Concept]

The expanded capstone -- risk parity over the keepers PLUS the curated void-filling near-keepers (crypto/defensive/reversal). Curated breadth beats the pure book: +1.54 vs breakthrough +1.49 (2021-26), driven by the uncorrelated adds (crypto corr +0.35, reversal +0.14). Fill the voids that actually diversify. [Research]

US banks are ~one regulated factor (economy + short duration) — no price-alpha to pick; a coherent macro/known-beta sleeve, not a keeper. The anti-Bio. [Null]

Broad/thematic ETF exposure — managed-QQQ trend + vol-target keeper (the leverage wrapper itself was rejected). Governed live driver, validation PASS; consumes bonds' regime overlay (ON, marginal). Paper/dry-run. [Live path]

Democratic-era darlings (Biden/Obama/Clinton) — the thesis runs backwards: party-aligned baskets lose under their own party (clean energy −21%/yr under Biden), because macro dominates and darlings revert. [Null]

Europe/Middle East/Africa — US beta wearing a flag (11 ETFs → 1.8 bets), FX drag, no rotation edge. [Null]

Listed private-equity managers (BX/KKR/Apollo/Carlyle/Ares) — a levered pro-cyclical market/credit factor (beta-SPY 1.39, credit +1.55), not diversification. Governed live driver: PE-factor book + benchmark's market_regime overlay ON — first consumer sleeve to earn it (Sharpe +0.76→+0.95, DD −45%→−31%). [Live driver]

Governed crypto trend sleeve (BTC/ETH). [Validation]

Derivatives reference — 120-block catalog, pricers, analytics — plus the 'modify to death' variation program: 10 structures studied on real data and synthesized in the 'Where the Fee Lives' whitepaper (a modification never conjures return, it relocates risk). [Research]